以某港1990~2003年集装箱吞吐量为实测数据,建立其集装箱吞吐量的和灰色系统等预测模型。对比该港2004~2006年集装箱吞吐量各模型预测值与实际值的差异,分析了差异产生的原因及其单一预测模型的局限性,提出了基于组合预测的港口集装箱吞吐量预测法。对港港口集装箱吞吐量发展趋势进行预测,作为未来对港口岸线资源有效的开发利用,基础设施的合理规划、建设以及港口功能拓展的依据是很有必要的。 Taking the container throughput of a certain port from 1990 to 2003 as the measured data, a forecasting model of container throughput and gray system was established. Comparing the difference between forecast value and actual value of the container throughput of the port from 2004 to 2006, the causes of the difference and the limitations of the single forecasting model are analyzed, and the forecast method of port container throughput based on combined forecasting is proposed. It is necessary to predict the development trend of container throughput of port and port as a basis for effective development and utilization of port shoreline resources in the future, reasonable planning and construction of infrastructure, and expansion of port functions.