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为了分析影响信控交叉口安全的显著因素,利用分层贝叶斯模型关联交叉口特征和事故率,考虑位于同一主干道上交叉口间的相互关联,并用所建立的模型对交叉口层面和主干道层面的安全影响因素进行了深入分析。结果表明:分层贝叶斯模型比传统模型拟合结果更好;在交叉口层面,高架下的、相互间距近的、十字的、转向车道比例大的、相位多以及日均流量大的交叉口事故率较高;在主干道层面,位于双向行驶的、平均车速高的主干道上交叉口安全性较差。
In order to analyze the significant factors that affect the security of the intersection, the layered Bayesian model is used to correlate the characteristics of the intersections and the accident rates, and the correlations between the intersections on the same main road are considered. Finally, The main factors affecting the safety of the main thoroughfare are analyzed in depth. The results show that the layered Bayesian model has better fitting results than the traditional model. At the level of the intersection, the intersections with elevated crossings with large proportion of crosswalks, large number of phases, and large average daily traffic flow The accident rate is high. On the main road, the intersections on the arterial roads with high average speed in two-way traffic are not safe.