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2014年国家棉花目标价格补贴政策在新疆试行,旨在保障棉农利益的前提下,发挥市场在资源配置中的作用,合理引导棉花生产。采用问卷调查法和Logistic回归分析法对南疆北疆植棉区158户棉农在目标价格补贴政策实施背景下棉花种植意愿进行调查分析,结果表明棉农家庭务农人数、植棉亩均成本、棉花亩均产量、植棉亩均收入以及目标价格预期对棉农的棉花种植意愿有显著影响。为了有效提高新疆棉区棉农生产积极性,促进棉花产业发展,应当加快棉花产业配套设施建设,科技助力棉花产业发展;稳定棉花补贴预期,建立补贴长效机制;建立非宜棉区退出机制,鼓励土地流转,发挥植棉规模效益。
In 2014, the national cotton target price subsidy policy was piloted in Xinjiang, under the precondition of guaranteeing cotton farmers’ interests, giving full play to the market’s role in resource allocation and rationally guiding cotton production. Using questionnaire survey and Logistic regression analysis, 158 cotton farmers in southern cotton planting area in northern Xinjiang were investigated and analyzed their willingness to plant cotton under the background of the target price subsidy policy. The results showed that the average number of cotton farmers, the average cost of cotton planting, The average yield, cotton mu per capita income and target price expectation have a significant impact on the farmers’ cotton planting intentions. In order to effectively increase the enthusiasm of cotton producers in Xinjiang cotton area and promote the development of cotton industry, it is necessary to speed up the construction of ancillary facilities in cotton industry, promote the development of cotton industry by science and technology, stabilize the expected cotton subsidies and establish a long-term subsidy mechanism, establish an exit mechanism for non- Circulation, play cotton scale benefits.