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《国务院关于印发全面推开营改增试点后调整中央与地方增值税收入划分过渡方案的通知》提出了增值税在中央政府与地方政府之间“五五分成”的改革方案。本文试图对新方案可能产生的影响进行分析。研究发现,在新方案下,各省实际分成比例与增值税收入增长率呈负相关,与2014年税收返还比例呈正相关。在此基础上,本文模拟了既定增值税收入增长率条件下地方政府的实际分成比例,并讨论了新方案对促进地方财力均等化方面的影响。最后,通过分析新税制下的税收激励机制,发现地方政府存在鼓励第二产业发展的动机,进而预测新方案的实施将引发地方政府新一轮投资扩张,加剧产能过剩的现状。
The “Circular of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Transitional Plan for Dividing Value-Added Tax Revenue Between the Central Government and Local Government after Pilotly Expanding the Reform Project” put forward the reform proposal that the VAT should be divided into “five or five percentages” between the central government and local governments. This article attempts to analyze the possible impact of the new scenario. The study found that under the new scheme, the actual percentage share of provinces and the growth rate of VAT revenue were negatively correlated with the proportion of tax rebates in 2014. On this basis, this paper simulates the actual share of local government under the condition of the growth rate of VAT, and discusses the impact of the new program on promoting the equalization of local financial resources. Finally, by analyzing the tax incentive mechanism under the new tax system, we find that local governments have incentives to encourage the development of the secondary industry, and then predict the implementation of the new program will lead to a new round of local government investment expansion, exacerbating the status of overcapacity.