一、前言作者认为,电力建设与国民经济发展,负荷增长情况构成一个互相制约、互相促进的“灰色系统”,可应用系统已有数据序列建立动态模型,确定各因素之间的定量关系.当忽略了一些次要因素之后,系统模型可表示为图1.图1中,A(ii)(i=1,2,3)反映各变量自身增长因素,a_(21),a_(31),a_(32)表示各变量互相之间的影响因素,x_1,X_2,X_3分别表示系统年工农业总产值、年平均负荷和年电力系统投资.系统各变量之间的定量关系可通过已有样本序列建立动态模型而确定. I. Preface The author believes that power construction and national economic development and load growth constitute a “gray system” that mutually restricts and promotes each other. The existing data series of the system can be used to establish a dynamic model to determine the quantitative relationship among various factors. After neglecting some secondary factors, the system model can be expressed as Figure 1. In Figure 1, A (ii) (i = 1, 2, 3) reflects the self-growth factors of each variable, a 21, a 31, a_ (32) represents the influence factors of each variable, x_1, x_2, x_3 respectively represent the annual gross output value of industrial and agricultural output, average annual load and the annual investment of power system.The quantitative relationship between the variables of the system can be obtained through the existing samples The sequence is established by the dynamic model.