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以坚持江苏沿海地区为江苏主要粮仓地位不动摇,保障江苏省粮食安全为前提,在耕地—粮食—人口复合系统下,以耕地压力指数模型为基础,倒推人口承载力估算模型,评价江苏沿海地区的现实人口承载状况。同时,对江苏沿海3市2025年人口承载力进行测算,在二胎政策全面放开的现实情况下,规划江苏沿海地区未来发展的合理城市人口规模。结果表明:1)1998—2014年江苏沿海耕地面积波动减少,人口持续增长,人均耕地面积大幅走低,粮食总产量波折小幅增长;2)江苏沿海地区整体人口承载压力较小,从各地级市看,人口承载压力呈现南通>连云港>盐城的特点;3)预测2025年南通、连云港、盐城3市最适人口规模分别为640万、978万、1 756万,最大人口规模分别为800万、1 223万、2 195万。
Under the premise of persisting in the Jiangsu coastal area being unshakable as the main grain silo in Jiangsu Province and ensuring the food security in Jiangsu Province, based on the cultivated land-grain-population composite system, based on the cultivated land pressure index model, the estimation model of population carrying capacity was inverted and the coastal areas in Jiangsu The actual population in the region. At the same time, the population carrying capacity of 3 cities in Jiangsu Province in 2025 will be calculated. Under the realistic situation that the second child policy is fully liberalized, the reasonable urban population in Jiangsu coastal area will be planned. The results showed as follows: 1) From 1998 to 2014, the cultivated land area along the coast of Jiangsu Province decreased and its population continued to increase. The per capita arable land area dropped sharply and the total grain yield increased slightly. 2) 3) Forecasting the optimal population sizes of Nantong, Lianyungang and Yancheng in 2025 are 6.4 million, 9.78 million and 17.56 million respectively, with the largest population being 8 million and 1 respectively 2.23 million, 2.19 million.