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远景圈闭的经济评价是确定钻井程序的常用方法。勘探远景评价要求确定许多具有一系列可能值的未知量。在将远景圈闭提供给管理部门审查之前,远景分析应能解出这些未知量;财政分析必须回答是大的发现还是小的发现,是干井还是没有经济意义的产层等各种问题。 本文将对确定风险与储量分布以及油气统计发现率的方法作出评价;并探讨确定随机因素和储量分布的各种方法。还将介绍期望货币值经济估计方法和平均储量规模的用法;并给出这些概念的用途。
Economic evaluation of prospect traps is a common method for determining drilling procedures. Exploration prospect evaluation requires the determination of many unknowns with a range of possible values. Before the prospective traps are provided to the management for review, the long-term analysis should be able to solve these unknowns; the financial analysis must answer whether it is a big discovery or a small discovery, or whether the dry well is a production layer with no economic significance. This article will evaluate the methods for determining the risk and reserves distribution and the statistical discovery rate of oil and gas; and discuss various methods to determine the random factors and the distribution of reserves. It will also introduce the use of the expected currency value economic estimation method and the average reserve size; and give the use of these concepts.