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移动平均法就是将数据按照时间排列,以一定的跨越期进行移动平均得出平均值进行预测的一种方法。该方法能够消除时间序列中的偶然因素对预测结果的影响,突出反映趋势性和周期性的变动,适用于一年期等短期预测,现已被广泛应用于各种疾病及医院统计预测中。本研究探讨如何采用Excel函数的方法计算移动平均数(预测值),并绘制移动平均线,进行肺结核疫情预警分析。
Moving average method is to arrange the data in accordance with the time, with a certain period of time to average the average moving average to predict a method. This method can eliminate the impact of contingency factors in the time series on the prediction results, highlight the trends and cyclical changes, and is suitable for short-term one-year forecasts. It has been widely used in various diseases and hospital statistical forecasting. This study explored how to use the Excel function method to calculate the moving average (predicted value), and draw the moving average, the tuberculosis epidemic early warning analysis.