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根据乌干达2002年的人口普查数据和历史气候数据,我们估计了气候引起的国内人口流动对居住在目标区域内的非流动人口就业概率的影响。与一个简单理论模型预期一致,我们的研究结果显示,气候变化引起的人口流动在乌干达造成的负面影响比有记录的发达国家更大。结果进一步表明,这一负面影响在乌干达路网密度较低的区域尤其强烈,因为路网密度低对资本流动性不利:在这些区域内,净迁入率增加10%,非迁移者的就业概率可能降低10%以上。JEL代码:E24,J21,J61,Q54,R23。
Based on Ugandan census data from 2002 and historical climate data, we estimated the impact of climate-induced domestic migration on the probability of employment of non-migrants residing in the target area. In line with the expectation of a simple theoretical model, our findings show that the negative impact of climate change-induced migration in Uganda is greater than in the developed countries recorded. The results further show that this negative impact is particularly strong in Uganda's less densely populated areas because of the low density of the road network, which is detrimental to capital liquidity: net migration rates have increased by 10% in these areas, and the employment probability of non-migrants May be reduced by more than 10%. JEL Codes: E24, J21, J61, Q54, R23.