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对电价概率密度函数及分布函数的研究有助于发电企业和购电商准确估计自身的经营状况,且有利于监管机构对电价严重偏离于正常分布的时期进行重点监控。文中基于某一区域的负荷呈正态分布的假设,结合市场总供给曲线在某一点飞升的严重非线性特征,采用概率论从理论上推导了电价作为负荷这种随机变量的函数的分布情况,并以美国加州、PJM和中国浙江电力市场的实际交易电价数据进行了验证。结果表明,只有在电力供求关系很宽松的情况下,电价才近似呈正态分布;而在供求紧张的情况下,电价分布明显偏离正态分布,且具有严重的右偏峰特性;实际电力市场在供求紧张时还表现出狭峰特征。
Studying the probability density function and the distribution function of electricity price can help power generation companies and power purchasers to accurately evaluate their own operating conditions and help supervisors monitor the power prices seriously deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption that the load of a region is normally distributed and the serious non-linear characteristics of the general supply curve of the market soaring at a certain point, the distribution of the function of electricity price as a random variable of load is theoretically derived from the theory of probability. It also verifies the actual transaction price data of California, PJM and China’s Zhejiang electricity market. The results show that the electricity price is approximately normal distribution only when the electricity supply and demand are relaxed. In the case of tight supply and demand, the electricity price distribution obviously deviates from the normal distribution and has a serious right-peak deviation characteristic. The actual electricity market In the tight supply and demand also showed narrow peaks.