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为更好揭示传染病流行的个体受感染-发病-就诊-康复的时空过程变化模式以及区域之间的信息流与物质流的传播网络结构特征,基于2002~2003年中国SARS病例数据,选取SARS流行的三个典型空间位置信息:工作单位或住址、发病地点以及报告单位,从感染个体和空间区域两个角度来探索病毒感染扩展的输入与输出传播机制,定义并探讨了北京市SARS传播输入-输出流(In-Out Flow)的概念与流行病学特征.采用空间统计分析方法和网络特征分析方法,探索了北京市外部输入-输出流的高风险时空热点以及网络结构特征,并对北京市内部输入-输出流传播网络的空间自相关性与异质性、时空演化规律以及网络结构特征进行了全面分析.结果表明:(1)外部输入流集中在山西和广东,而外部输出流较为分散,主要是广东以及山东等北部省份,且防控措施重点应分别是SARS爆发的早中期与初期;(2)内部输出病例在整体区域上存在显著正自相关性特征,高危人群集中在20~60岁的医务与民工等中青年人群;(3)市中心区的若干区县是SARS传播高风险热点区域,西北方位市郊是次级高风险区域,而东北方位市郊则相对安全;(4)在内部传播网络中各区县节点存在显著小世界特征且具有信息流和物质流的异质性特征,市郊通州区与昌平区是潜在的高风险热点区域,顺义区与怀柔区等节点承载了极低的物质流和信息流信息,是相对的低风险冷点区域.基于输入-输出流的探索与分析更有助于揭示SARS流行过程中的潜在时空演化特征与规律,可为应急决策与防控措施提供更有效的理论依据.
To better reveal the spatio-temporal process change patterns of infection-onset-treatment-rehabilitation of individuals infected with epidemic diseases as well as the structural characteristics of information flow and material flow in different regions of the world, based on the data of SARS cases from 2002 to 2003 in China, SARS The epidemic three typical spatial location information: the work unit or address, the place of the disease and the reporting unit, explores the input and output transmission mechanism of virus infection expansion from two aspects of the infected individuals and the spatial region, defines and discusses the Beijing SARS transmission input - Concept and Epidemiological Features of In-Out Flow Using spatial statistical analysis method and network characteristic analysis method, this paper explores the high-risk spatio-temporal hot spots and network structure characteristics of external input-output flow in Beijing, The spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of space network of input-output flow in city, the evolution of space-time and the characteristics of network structure are comprehensively analyzed.The results show that: (1) The external input stream is concentrated in Shanxi and Guangdong, while the external output stream is more Scattered mainly in Guangdong and Shandong and other northern provinces, and prevention and control measures should focus on the early and mid-term and early SARS outbreaks respectively; (2) There are significant positive correlations among the internal output cases in the whole region, and the high-risk groups are concentrated in middle-aged and young people such as medical and migrant workers between 20 and 60 years old. (3) Some districts and counties in the downtown area are the high risk of SARS transmission In the hot area, the suburbs in the northwest are the secondary high-risk areas, while the northeastern suburbs are relatively safe. (4) In the internal communication network, the nodes in all districts and counties have the characteristics of a remarkably small world with heterogeneous characteristics of information flow and material flow, Suburban Tongzhou District and Changping District are potential high-risk hotspots, and nodes such as Shunyi District and Huairou District bear extremely low material flow and information flow and are relatively low-risk cold-spots. Based on the exploration of input-output flow and Analysis is more helpful to reveal the potential spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and laws of SARS epidemic, which can provide a more effective theoretical basis for emergency decision-making and prevention and control measures.