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目的探讨用鼠带毒指数预测肾综合征出血热发病率的科学性,为制定防治措施提供科学依据。方法根据《全国肾综合征出血热监测方案(试行)》进行监测,运用Spearman相关分析和χ2检验方法对2005~2012年安徽省人间和鼠间肾综合征出血热的发病率与带毒指数进行相关性分析。结果安徽省肾综合征出血热监测点的平均发病率为0.523/10万,非监测点发病率为0.215/10万,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);根据鼠带毒指数与人间肾综合征出血热发病率,建立线性回归方程模型:带毒指数=0.010+0.087×发病率,预测2013年监测点发病率为0.676/10万,95%的可信区间[0.642/10万,0.709/10万],实际值为0.689/10万。结论根据鼠带毒指数预测人间肾综合征出血热发病水平具有可靠性,对肾综合征出血热疫情的预测预警提供参考。
Objective To explore the scientificalness of predicting the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome by using rat poison index and to provide a scientific basis for making prevention and cure measures. Methods According to the National Monitoring Plan of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (Trial), Spearman correlation analysis and Chi-square test were used to analyze the incidence and poisoning index of hemorrhagic fever with human and mouse-kidney syndrome in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2012 Correlation analysis. Results The average morbidity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Anhui Province was 0.523 / 100 000, and the incidence of non-surveillance sites was 0.215 / 100 000, with significant difference (P <0.05) The incidence rate of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was established. The model of linear regression equation was established: the incidence of poisoning index = 0.010 + 0.087 ×, the incidence of monitoring point in 2013 was 0.676 / 100 000, the 95% confidence interval [0.642 / 0.709 / 100,000], the actual value of 0.689 / 10 million. Conclusions The prediction of the incidence of human renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever based on the rat poison index is reliable and can provide reference for the prediction and early warning of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.