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文章建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究了美国1950-2013年经济增长、二氧化碳排放量和能源消耗之间的动态效应。Johansen协整检验发现这三者不存在长期的均衡关系。脉冲相应函数的分析结果表明:当外界扰动作用于经济增长时,二氧化碳排放量和能源消耗都会增加;当二氧化碳排放量受到外界正的冲击时,相比其他两个变量,美国的经济增长受到显著的负影响,并且需要最长的时间才能恢复到之前的稳定水平,同时当这样的扰动发生时,美国的能源消耗增长率会增加;能源消耗受到外界正冲击时,美国的GDP受到负向作用,并且促使二氧化碳排放量的增加。根据方差分解可以得出:经济增长的变动对二氧化碳排放有较大的贡献率;经济增长和二氧化碳排放的变动对能源消耗的影响都较为明显。
The paper establishes a vector autoregression (VAR) model to study the dynamic effects of economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in the United States from 1950 to 2013. Johansen co-integration test found that there is no long-term equilibrium between the three. The analysis of impulse response shows that when external disturbances act on the economy, both carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption increase. When the carbon dioxide emissions are positively impacted by the outside world, the economic growth of the United States is significantly higher than the other two variables And takes the longest time to recover to its previous level of stability and at the same time as such disturbances occur, the rate of increase in energy consumption in the United States will increase; when the energy consumption is positively shocked by the outside world, the GDP of the United States will be negatively affected , And to promote the increase of carbon dioxide emissions. According to variance decomposition, it can be concluded that: the change of economic growth has a greater contribution to the emission of carbon dioxide; and the changes of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions have a more obvious impact on energy consumption.