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Keynes的货币持有动机理论是建立现金决策模型的重要基础,在同时考虑企业三种现金持有动机的基础上建立现金决策模型。结合文献中企业现金持有水平的经验结果进行数据模拟分析,得出如下结论:一是企业应该关注交易性动机和预防性动机的现金需求,而非投机性动机的现金需求;二是企业经营资产收益率和投机回报率只有在出现极端值的情况下才会对企业现金持有决策产生影响;三是未来预期投资规模不会影响企业现金持有水平。对企业现金持有水平经验研究开拓思路,有利于详细考察企业现金持有水平变动的不同原因。
Keynes’ theory of monetary holding motivation is an important foundation for establishing a cash decision model, and a cash decision model is established based on three kinds of cash holding motives of the enterprise. Based on the empirical analysis of the cash holdings in the literature, the following conclusions are drawn: First, the enterprises should pay attention to the cash demand for trading motivation and preventive motivation rather than the cash demand for speculative motivation; second, Return on assets and speculative rate of return will have an impact on corporate cash holding decisions only in the presence of extreme values. Third, the expected future investment size will not affect the level of corporate cash holdings. On the level of corporate cash holdings of experience in research and development ideas, help to examine in detail the different reasons for the level of corporate cash holdings.