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本文通过时间序列数据分析住宅产品价格体系之间的因果关系,利用截面数据建立多元计量模型量化住宅市场产品结构对房价的影响力度。实证研究表明我国住宅结构失衡是导致住宅市场价格上升的主要因素,当前的房价上涨实质为结构性泡沫。稳定或保持适度的住宅价格上涨,应采取增加经济适用房、普通住宅的供给;建立完善的住房保障体系;实施有区别的税收、信贷政策,完善住宅市场监管体系等措施。
This paper analyzes the causal relationship between the price system of residential products through time-series data and uses the cross-sectional data to establish the multivariate econometric model to quantify the influence of the product structure of the housing market on the price of housing. Empirical studies show that the imbalance of housing structure in our country is the main factor leading to the increase of housing market prices. The current housing price increase is essentially a structural bubble. Stabilize or maintain modest housing prices should be taken to increase the supply of affordable housing, ordinary residential supply; to establish a sound housing security system; the implementation of a differential tax and credit policies, improve the residential market regulatory system and other measures.