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进入21世纪以来,由于纳股暴跌戳破了世纪之交一路狂歌猛进的互联网泡沫,全球信息产业着实遭受了一把“倒害寒”。2001年初,这股寒流的多米诺骨牌开始波及通信业,全球通信业出现增幅逐月下滑的趋势。中国的通信市场虽然比较健康,但也受其影响,从2001年初开始出现增长速度小幅回调,固定网业务收入甚至增幅一度下滑到5％。于是有人惊呼:5％能否支撑国民经济7％的增长速度?一些专家据此断言,中国电信业将进入低速增长时期,增速将从持续二十多年的两位数增长速度回落到一位数增速。最近网上盛传,今年上半年中国电信业务收入与去年同期相比,增速又下降了4个百分点。情况果然如此吗?今年上半年我国通信业情况到底如何?下半年通信业面临怎样的走势?我国通信业持续发展面临哪些挑战和课题? 近日,在《人民邮电》报社中国信息产业网国际频道开通仪式上,《人民邮电》报社总编辑武锁宁对中国通信业总体发展趋势做了深入分析和展望,引起与会的信息产业部领导、各国电信公司驻华机构代表的强烈反响。本刊将此报告整理成文、以飨读者。
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the global information industry has indeed suffered a “back-to-back harshness” as the stock-market crash plunged the world-class Internet bubble. In early 2001, the cold dominoes started to affect the communications industry, and the growth rate of the global communications industry showed a monthly decline. Although China’s communications market is relatively healthy, it is also affected by it. Since the beginning of 2001, its growth rate has slightly rebounded. The growth rate of fixed-network business even slipped to 5% at one time. Some people exclaimed: 5% can support the national economy 7% growth rate Some experts assert that the Chinese telecom industry will enter a period of low growth, the growth rate will slow down from the double-digit growth rate of more than 20 years to One digit growth rate. Recently online rumors, China Telecom revenue in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, the growth rate dropped another 4 percentage points. What happened in the first half of this year, the situation of the telecommunications industry in the end? The second half of the telecommunications industry is facing what kind of trend? China’s communications industry for the sustainable development of the challenges and topics? Recently, the “People’s Posts and Telecommunications” newspaper opened China International Information Network Network Channel At the ceremony, Wu Shuxing, editor in chief of People’s Posts and Telecommunications, made an in-depth analysis and prospect of the overall development trend of China’s communications industry, arousing strong repercussions from leaders of the Ministry of Information Industry and representatives of foreign telecom companies in China. The journal organizes this report into a document to readers.