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中国经济经过30多年的高速增长,2012年左右步入中高速增长的经济新常态。当前由于受增速转折期、结构调整期、国际金融危机刺激政策消化期三重叠加的影响,各界对中国面临中等收入陷阱风险的担忧日益增加。文章首先对经济新常态背景下中国经济走势做出初步研判,对中等收入陷阱的形成机制予以理论分析,借助国际经验数据测算出判断陷阱的数字特征,估算了中国面临中等收入的风险。文章建议政府从转变经济增长方式、管理宏观经济波动、摆好政府市场位置等方面努力,避免陷入中等收入陷阱。
After more than 30 years of rapid economic growth, China’s economy entered a new economic normal in mid-to-high growth in 2012. Due to the current triple impact of the acceleration and contraction period, the structural adjustment period and the international financial crisis stimulus policy, there is growing concern that China faces the risk of a middle-income trap. First of all, this paper makes a preliminary study on the trend of China’s economy under the new normal economic conditions, analyzes the formation mechanism of the middle-income trap theoretically, calculates the digital characteristics of the judgment trap with international experience data, and estimates the risk that China faces middle-income. The article suggests that the government should make efforts to change its mode of economic growth, manage macroeconomic fluctuations and set the market position of the government so as to avoid falling into the middle-income trap.