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本文研究了加入欧盟前后东欧国家对中欧贸易关系的影响和作用,并就东欧国家对中国对欧盟商品出口贸易产生的挤入和挤出效应作了实证检验。文章首先简要介绍以EU10和EU15为代表的新老欧盟成员国对华贸易发展情况;其次,建立模型对EU10东欧国家在中国对欧盟出口贸易中的挤入和挤出效应进行分析和检验;第三,从贸易结构转型、贸易条件改变和“新东方政策”三个方面对东欧国家影响因子进行经济学分析。文章最后进行总结,并对中国发展与东欧国家贸易关系提出一些建议。
This paper studies the influence and effect of Eastern European countries on the trade relations between China and the EU before and after the accession to the EU and makes an empirical test on the crowding in and out of the export trade of China to the EU by the Eastern European countries. First of all, the article briefly introduces the development of the trade between China and the EU members represented by EU10 and EU15. Secondly, it establishes a model to analyze and test the crowding-in and crowding-out effect of the EU10 eastern European countries in the export trade with China to the EU. Third, carry on an economic analysis on the influence factors of Eastern European countries from the three aspects of the trade structure transformation, the change of terms of trade and the “New Oriental Policy”. Finally, the article concludes with some suggestions on the development of China’s trade relations with Eastern European countries.