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民主党总统候选人奥巴马创造了历史，然而他却没有太多时间庆祝，因为美国经济目前面临着自罗斯福时期以来最艰难的局面。除了要把美国从1929年经济大萧条以来最糟糕的经济环境中拯救出来之外，奥巴马还要处理伊拉克、阿富汗两场战争的烂摊子。
经济学家们普遍认为，美国经济已步入衰退，到今年1月份，这种衰退可能更加恶化。2009年1月20日正式走马上任的奥巴马，必须要大干一场了。
The whole of America is pondering a single issue: Is this another Great Depression? The answer, of course, is No. Well, not yet.
Most 1)pundits agree that an improved understanding of macro-economic management will prevent the US from suffering a repeat of the 1930s, when GDP fell by 19 per cent, 5,000 banks failed and unemployment hit 25 per cent. Faith in the financial authorities, however, is tempered by an unavoidable question: if they know so much, why was the 2)sub-prime mortgages drama allowed to develop into a nationwide crisis?
America is 3)disinclined to 4)wallow in pessimism. Its power and influence were built on a belief, woven into the nation’s DNA, that success is the natural order for those living under the 5)stars and stripes.
Yet, even here in 6)glitzy Miami, the foundations of confidence are being washed away by a wave of bad facts. Florida’s housing market is 7)under water. Weekend property supplements contained several advertisements for new homes at “below builder’s cost”. Prices of some 8)fancy apartments have been 9)slashed from $500,000 to $299,000. In America’s 20 largest cities, average house prices are down by 16.6 per cent. Households
have lost $5 trillion of wealth in the crash. More than seven million Americans are
expected to 10)default on their payments by the end of 2010. About four million of these will be forced to give up their homes.
When it comes to the economy, George Bush’s approval ratings are so low, support extends barely beyond blood relatives and staffers. His successor’s toughest job will be knowing where to start.
The model of globalisation that depends on the American consumer as a shopper of last resort is finished. Household debt is now $13.9 trillion, equal almost exactly to the size of the US economy. Between 2000 and 2007, America’s trade deficit 11)ballooned from $380 billion to $700 billion, as the country sucked in imports with borrowed money.
In the same period, inflation-adjusted median incomes of what 12)pollsters call “prime working-age families” (35--44-year olds) fell from $69,000 to $67,000. The illusion of rising prosperity was maintained by stock market profits, bigger mortgages and a wild 13)binge on credit cards. But as the cash flow from each of these stopped, America ran into trouble.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 per cent of the US economy, has 14)dipped for the first time in 17 years. About 25 million workers are employed in retail. Few can be certain their jobs are safe.
One of the worst affected sectors is car dealerships, with 700 expected to close this year, destroying more than 35,000 jobs. Sales of motor vehicles have fallen every month in the past 12 and are down to the lowest level for more than 25 years.
Analysts calculate that, after 15)allowing for population growth, sales are where they were just after the war.
Motor manufacturing by domestic companies is close to collapse. General Motors is burning through $1 billion of cash a month, and is lobbying furiously for state aid. Its October sales were down by 45.1 per cent on the same month the year before last.
16)Chrysler’s were 34.9 per cent lower. They have been discussing a 17)merger that could close half of Chrysler’s 14 plants and eliminate all but seven of its 26 models. If a deal were forged, 30,000 jobs would be in 18)jeopardy. Without an agreement, however, there will have to be 100,000-plus redundancies.
Unemployment in Detroit is already 8.9 per cent, compared with a national average of 6.1 per cent. Motown is fast becoming Slowtown, an industrial disaster zone.
The 19)crunch is triggering a surge in unpaid bills. 20)Delinquent credit-card debt has risen to 4.9 per cent. Banks, still reeling from the 21)dodgy mortgage 22)debacle, face the prospect of 23)writing off many billions more.
Who would have thought that Bill Clinton’s regime would be held up as a model of 24)fiscal responsibility? Between 1998 and 2000, it accumulated a federal surplus of $431 billion. The Bush term is ending with a 25)post 26)bailout budget deficit approaching $1 trillion.
As Time magazine concludes: “America is drowning in debt.
Getting 27)square again will be painful.” Don’t be fooled by the dollar’s rise, in today’s troubled world it is seen merely as the best house in a bad neighbourhood. As for the recent upturn in US share prices, Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said: “Don’t look at the stock market. Look at the credit market.”
By any conventional measure, the US economy under Bush has been a fool’s paradise: a place where consumers believed they could spend more than they were earning,
without a final 28)day of reckoning. That game is over. Barack Obama’s challenge will be to restore traditional American values, replacing speculation with enterprise, and 29)profligacy with thrift.
Change is long 30)overdue.
全美国都在思索一个问题：这又是一次经济大萧条吗？答案当然是否定的，至少是“暂时还没有”。
绝大多数学者都认为加强宏观经济管理可以防止美国重蹈上世纪30年代经济大萧条的覆辙。当时美国国内生产总值下降19%，5000家银行破产，失业率高达25%。然而，民众对财经界权威的信任也难免遭遇尴尬：如果他们早就知道这么多，为何会让次级抵押贷款危机演变成今天这场全国性的危机呢？
美国人向来拒绝悲观消极。美国的权力和世界影响源于一个与生俱来的信念——成功是自然而然地属于那些生活在星条旗下的人们的。这个信念就像植入了这个民族的DNA一样稳固且不容置疑。
然而现在，哪怕是在阳光灿烂的迈阿密，这种信念的根基正被一连串负面的事实冲垮。佛罗里达的房地产市场可谓水深火热。周末房地产增刊中出现好几条以“低于房屋造价”为噱头的新屋广告。有些精美公寓的价格已经从50万美元狂跌至29.9万美元。全美的20个大城市中，平均房价已经下跌16.6%。房价缩水让房产持有者们损失了5万亿美元。2010年之前，700多万美国人将会无力偿还房贷，他们之中大约有400万人会因此被迫放弃他们的房子。
在经济方面，乔治·布什的支持率非常低，支持他的恐怕只有他的家人和幕僚。对他的继任者而言，最严峻的挑战莫过于该从哪里着手收拾这个烂摊子。
过去那种唯美国消费者马首是瞻的全球一体化模式已经宣告结束了。现在美国房屋债务高达13.9万亿美元，数额几乎相当于整个美国的经济。2000年至2007年间，美国以贷款来进口货物，贸易逆差从3800亿狂飙至7000亿美元。
同期，美国在通胀因素调整后的中产阶层年收入——即民意调查者所称的“主要劳动年龄家庭”（35--44岁）年收入——从6.9万下降到6.7万美元。股市一路上扬、不断增长的抵押贷款以及人们疯狂使用信用卡造就了美国经济的虚假繁荣。然而，这其中任何一方面的现金流转一旦陷于停滞，美国就陷入困境了。
比重占美国经济70%的消费性支出17年来首次出现下滑。零售业界约2500万名工人中，少有人能确保自己的饭碗是绝对安全的。
汽车经销商是最大的受害者之一，预计今年（指2008年，编者注，下同）会有700家汽车代理行倒闭，超过3.5万人失业。在过去12个月中，汽车销售量逐月下降，目前已经降至25年来的最低水平。分析家计算了一下，将人口增长因素考虑在内，目前汽车的销售情况与二战后相当。
国内的汽车制造厂家已经濒临倒闭的边缘。通用汽车公司每个月损失10亿美元，现在他们正积极游说州政府伸出援手。今年10月，通用公司的销售额比前年同期下降45.1%，克莱斯勒则下降34.9%。两家公司现正商讨合并事宜。一旦合并，克莱斯勒的14家车间将有一半会被关闭，原有的26款车型只留下7款继续生产。要是真的谈妥合并，3万工人将职位不保。然而目前即便两家公司没达成任何协议，10万多名工人也将面临下岗的命运。
相比全国6.1%的平均失业率，底特律的失业率已经高达8.9%。拥有“汽车城”之称的底特律正在迅速沦为“慢城”——工业灾难城。
危机也触发债务逾期不还的个案急剧上升。信用卡拖欠还款的比例上升到4.9%。已经为数不清的无法偿还的按揭债务而头痛不已的银行，还将面临蒙受好几十亿损失的可能。
谁会想到比尔·克林顿政府时期会被奉为财政稳健的典范？1998年至2000年期间，美国联邦财政盈余为4310亿美元，可到了布什总统任期末段，实施了政府紧急救市计划后，财政赤字已经接近1万亿美元。
正如《时代》杂志指出的那样：“美国已经淹没在债务当中了。要还清所有债务谈何容易。”不要被美元升值愚弄了，在这个多事之秋，它只是众多一塌糊涂的房屋中稍好的一幢而已。至于暂时回升的美国股价，哈佛大学经济教授肯尼思·罗格夫说：“不要看股票市场，去看信贷市场。”
从传统角度衡量，布什总统领导下的美国经济就像是傻子的乐园：消费者相信他们可以花的比挣的多，丝毫不计后果。白日梦该醒了。摆在巴拉克·奥巴马面前的挑战就是重塑传统的美国价值：摈弃投机，回归实业；摈弃挥霍，重倡节俭。
美国早就应该有所改变了。
经济学家们普遍认为，美国经济已步入衰退，到今年1月份，这种衰退可能更加恶化。2009年1月20日正式走马上任的奥巴马，必须要大干一场了。
The whole of America is pondering a single issue: Is this another Great Depression? The answer, of course, is No. Well, not yet.
Most 1)pundits agree that an improved understanding of macro-economic management will prevent the US from suffering a repeat of the 1930s, when GDP fell by 19 per cent, 5,000 banks failed and unemployment hit 25 per cent. Faith in the financial authorities, however, is tempered by an unavoidable question: if they know so much, why was the 2)sub-prime mortgages drama allowed to develop into a nationwide crisis?
America is 3)disinclined to 4)wallow in pessimism. Its power and influence were built on a belief, woven into the nation’s DNA, that success is the natural order for those living under the 5)stars and stripes.
Yet, even here in 6)glitzy Miami, the foundations of confidence are being washed away by a wave of bad facts. Florida’s housing market is 7)under water. Weekend property supplements contained several advertisements for new homes at “below builder’s cost”. Prices of some 8)fancy apartments have been 9)slashed from $500,000 to $299,000. In America’s 20 largest cities, average house prices are down by 16.6 per cent. Households
have lost $5 trillion of wealth in the crash. More than seven million Americans are
expected to 10)default on their payments by the end of 2010. About four million of these will be forced to give up their homes.
When it comes to the economy, George Bush’s approval ratings are so low, support extends barely beyond blood relatives and staffers. His successor’s toughest job will be knowing where to start.
The model of globalisation that depends on the American consumer as a shopper of last resort is finished. Household debt is now $13.9 trillion, equal almost exactly to the size of the US economy. Between 2000 and 2007, America’s trade deficit 11)ballooned from $380 billion to $700 billion, as the country sucked in imports with borrowed money.
In the same period, inflation-adjusted median incomes of what 12)pollsters call “prime working-age families” (35--44-year olds) fell from $69,000 to $67,000. The illusion of rising prosperity was maintained by stock market profits, bigger mortgages and a wild 13)binge on credit cards. But as the cash flow from each of these stopped, America ran into trouble.
Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 per cent of the US economy, has 14)dipped for the first time in 17 years. About 25 million workers are employed in retail. Few can be certain their jobs are safe.
One of the worst affected sectors is car dealerships, with 700 expected to close this year, destroying more than 35,000 jobs. Sales of motor vehicles have fallen every month in the past 12 and are down to the lowest level for more than 25 years.
Analysts calculate that, after 15)allowing for population growth, sales are where they were just after the war.
Motor manufacturing by domestic companies is close to collapse. General Motors is burning through $1 billion of cash a month, and is lobbying furiously for state aid. Its October sales were down by 45.1 per cent on the same month the year before last.
16)Chrysler’s were 34.9 per cent lower. They have been discussing a 17)merger that could close half of Chrysler’s 14 plants and eliminate all but seven of its 26 models. If a deal were forged, 30,000 jobs would be in 18)jeopardy. Without an agreement, however, there will have to be 100,000-plus redundancies.
Unemployment in Detroit is already 8.9 per cent, compared with a national average of 6.1 per cent. Motown is fast becoming Slowtown, an industrial disaster zone.
The 19)crunch is triggering a surge in unpaid bills. 20)Delinquent credit-card debt has risen to 4.9 per cent. Banks, still reeling from the 21)dodgy mortgage 22)debacle, face the prospect of 23)writing off many billions more.
Who would have thought that Bill Clinton’s regime would be held up as a model of 24)fiscal responsibility? Between 1998 and 2000, it accumulated a federal surplus of $431 billion. The Bush term is ending with a 25)post 26)bailout budget deficit approaching $1 trillion.
As Time magazine concludes: “America is drowning in debt.
Getting 27)square again will be painful.” Don’t be fooled by the dollar’s rise, in today’s troubled world it is seen merely as the best house in a bad neighbourhood. As for the recent upturn in US share prices, Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said: “Don’t look at the stock market. Look at the credit market.”
By any conventional measure, the US economy under Bush has been a fool’s paradise: a place where consumers believed they could spend more than they were earning,
without a final 28)day of reckoning. That game is over. Barack Obama’s challenge will be to restore traditional American values, replacing speculation with enterprise, and 29)profligacy with thrift.
Change is long 30)overdue.
全美国都在思索一个问题：这又是一次经济大萧条吗？答案当然是否定的，至少是“暂时还没有”。
绝大多数学者都认为加强宏观经济管理可以防止美国重蹈上世纪30年代经济大萧条的覆辙。当时美国国内生产总值下降19%，5000家银行破产，失业率高达25%。然而，民众对财经界权威的信任也难免遭遇尴尬：如果他们早就知道这么多，为何会让次级抵押贷款危机演变成今天这场全国性的危机呢？
美国人向来拒绝悲观消极。美国的权力和世界影响源于一个与生俱来的信念——成功是自然而然地属于那些生活在星条旗下的人们的。这个信念就像植入了这个民族的DNA一样稳固且不容置疑。
然而现在，哪怕是在阳光灿烂的迈阿密，这种信念的根基正被一连串负面的事实冲垮。佛罗里达的房地产市场可谓水深火热。周末房地产增刊中出现好几条以“低于房屋造价”为噱头的新屋广告。有些精美公寓的价格已经从50万美元狂跌至29.9万美元。全美的20个大城市中，平均房价已经下跌16.6%。房价缩水让房产持有者们损失了5万亿美元。2010年之前，700多万美国人将会无力偿还房贷，他们之中大约有400万人会因此被迫放弃他们的房子。
在经济方面，乔治·布什的支持率非常低，支持他的恐怕只有他的家人和幕僚。对他的继任者而言，最严峻的挑战莫过于该从哪里着手收拾这个烂摊子。
过去那种唯美国消费者马首是瞻的全球一体化模式已经宣告结束了。现在美国房屋债务高达13.9万亿美元，数额几乎相当于整个美国的经济。2000年至2007年间，美国以贷款来进口货物，贸易逆差从3800亿狂飙至7000亿美元。
同期，美国在通胀因素调整后的中产阶层年收入——即民意调查者所称的“主要劳动年龄家庭”（35--44岁）年收入——从6.9万下降到6.7万美元。股市一路上扬、不断增长的抵押贷款以及人们疯狂使用信用卡造就了美国经济的虚假繁荣。然而，这其中任何一方面的现金流转一旦陷于停滞，美国就陷入困境了。
比重占美国经济70%的消费性支出17年来首次出现下滑。零售业界约2500万名工人中，少有人能确保自己的饭碗是绝对安全的。
汽车经销商是最大的受害者之一，预计今年（指2008年，编者注，下同）会有700家汽车代理行倒闭，超过3.5万人失业。在过去12个月中，汽车销售量逐月下降，目前已经降至25年来的最低水平。分析家计算了一下，将人口增长因素考虑在内，目前汽车的销售情况与二战后相当。
国内的汽车制造厂家已经濒临倒闭的边缘。通用汽车公司每个月损失10亿美元，现在他们正积极游说州政府伸出援手。今年10月，通用公司的销售额比前年同期下降45.1%，克莱斯勒则下降34.9%。两家公司现正商讨合并事宜。一旦合并，克莱斯勒的14家车间将有一半会被关闭，原有的26款车型只留下7款继续生产。要是真的谈妥合并，3万工人将职位不保。然而目前即便两家公司没达成任何协议，10万多名工人也将面临下岗的命运。
相比全国6.1%的平均失业率，底特律的失业率已经高达8.9%。拥有“汽车城”之称的底特律正在迅速沦为“慢城”——工业灾难城。
危机也触发债务逾期不还的个案急剧上升。信用卡拖欠还款的比例上升到4.9%。已经为数不清的无法偿还的按揭债务而头痛不已的银行，还将面临蒙受好几十亿损失的可能。
谁会想到比尔·克林顿政府时期会被奉为财政稳健的典范？1998年至2000年期间，美国联邦财政盈余为4310亿美元，可到了布什总统任期末段，实施了政府紧急救市计划后，财政赤字已经接近1万亿美元。
正如《时代》杂志指出的那样：“美国已经淹没在债务当中了。要还清所有债务谈何容易。”不要被美元升值愚弄了，在这个多事之秋，它只是众多一塌糊涂的房屋中稍好的一幢而已。至于暂时回升的美国股价，哈佛大学经济教授肯尼思·罗格夫说：“不要看股票市场，去看信贷市场。”
从传统角度衡量，布什总统领导下的美国经济就像是傻子的乐园：消费者相信他们可以花的比挣的多，丝毫不计后果。白日梦该醒了。摆在巴拉克·奥巴马面前的挑战就是重塑传统的美国价值：摈弃投机，回归实业；摈弃挥霍，重倡节俭。
美国早就应该有所改变了。