自新世纪以来,相较发达国家,发展中国家和新兴经济体经历了前所未有的经济加速增长,其主要原因并非这些国家基本面状况的改善,而是极为有利的全球经济环境。在这种环境背后,是发达国家所实行的不可持续的经济政策。中国经济增长最初的推动力是对发达国家出口的迅速扩张,而在全球经济危机之后的近期,则是投资热潮。但从长远来看,这两个因素均不可复制和持续。对于出口导向型的亚洲经济体来说,为了保持快速增长,它们需要降低对国外市场的依赖。对于拉丁美洲和非洲的初级产品出口国来说,能否取得更大程度上的自主权、实现快速稳定的增长,取决于它们能否成功降低对外资和大宗商品出口的依赖。 Since the beginning of the new century, developing countries and emerging economies have enjoyed unprecedented economic growth compared with the developed countries. The main reason for this is not the improvement in the fundamentals of these countries but the extremely favorable global economic environment. Behind this kind of environment is the unsustainable economic policy pursued by the developed countries. The initial driving force of China’s economic growth is the rapid expansion of exports to the developed countries, but it is an investment boom in the near future after the global economic crisis. However, in the long run, neither of these two factors can be replicated and sustained. For export-oriented Asian economies, in order to maintain rapid growth, they need to reduce their reliance on foreign markets. For developing-country exporters in Latin America and Africa, achieving greater and greater levels of autonomy and achieving rapid and steady growth depends on their ability to successfully reduce their dependence on exports of foreign capital and commodities.