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(一) 任何正确决策,都是建立在对未来发展趋势的科学预测上。预测技术完善性,预测结论客观性,是决策正确性的必要保证。在一定程度上可以说,决策是对预测的一种选择和评价。当预测不能反映客观经济发展趋势、科学技术发展趋势时,那么由于错误预测而造成的决策失误一般都会造成巨大的经济损失,或科学技术的落后的被动局面。例如:五十年代,苏联对是否发展锗半导体方面犯了方向性错误,结果导致苏
(1) Any correct decision-making is based on the scientific prediction of the future development trend. Predicting the perfection of technology and predicting the objectivity of conclusion are the necessary guarantees for the correctness of decision-making. To a certain extent, it can be said that decision making is a choice and evaluation of the forecast. When the forecast can not reflect the trend of objective economic development and the development trend of science and technology, then the policy-making mistakes caused by misprediction will generally cause huge economic losses or the backward passive situation of science and technology. For example, in the 1950s, the Soviet Union made directional mistakes in the development of germanium semiconductors. As a result, the Soviet Union