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促进我国经济增长的因素有很多,文中主要分析国内投资和外商直接投资这两个因素,探讨这二者对我国经济增长的影响。利用1978—2013年的时间序列数据对FDI、国内投资与GDP的关系进行实证分析,运用了ADF单位根检验法、协整检验法、格兰杰因果检验法、脉冲响应分析法,结果表明外商直接投资和国内投资对我国经济增长都有影响,外商直接投资对我国经济增长的影响趋势是先上升后下降的,并有反向作用的趋势,国内投资对我国经济增长的影响趋势是先上升后平缓。建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析,得出我国经济增长对国内投资的脉冲响应要大于对外商直接投资的响应,外商直接投资对我国的国内投资前期存在挤入效应,后期存在挤出效应。最后,根据得出的结论提出了相应的政策建议。
There are many factors to promote China’s economic growth. The article mainly analyzes the two factors of domestic investment and foreign direct investment, and explores the impact of the two on China’s economic growth. Using the time series data from 1978 to 2013, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between FDI, domestic investment and GDP, using the ADF unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. The results show that foreign investors Both direct investment and domestic investment have an impact on the economic growth in our country. The trend of the impact of foreign direct investment on China’s economic growth first increases and then decreases, and the trend of reverse effect is reversed. The impact of domestic investment on the economic growth of our country is the first to rise After the flat. The establishment of VAR model for impulse response analysis shows that the impulse response of China’s economic growth to domestic investment is greater than the response to foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment has a crowding-in effect on China’s domestic investment in the early stage and the crowding-out effect in the later stage. Finally, based on the conclusions drawn, the corresponding policy recommendations.