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针对道路交通事故发生的随机性及影响事故发生的因素很多,而且影响因素中既有定量因素又有定性因素的情况。首先分析了道路交通事故事故4项指标和事故率,确定事故率作为微观预测目标;然后从人-车-路组成的系统观点出发对事故因素分析,选取驾驶员的驾龄、车道数、平曲线半径、纵坡度、路面情况、路口路段类型、道路宽度和交通流量等变量作为主要影响因素,其中前7项作为定性影响因素,交通流量作为定量影响因素,各定性因素下分为若干类目;最后在数量化理论的基础之上建立了改进的模糊道路交通事故微观预测模型。该模型以某国道466.678~559.792 km段作为算例进行计算,计算结果表明:三枝交叉口对事故影响最大,针对该路段提出具体的道路整改意见。
There are many factors that affect the randomness of road traffic accidents and accidents, and there are both quantitative and qualitative factors in the road traffic accidents. Firstly, four indicators and accident rates of road traffic accidents are analyzed and the accident rate is determined as the micro-forecast target. Then from the point of view of the system composed of people-cars-road, the author analyzes the accident factors and selects driver’s driving experience, lane number, Radial, longitudinal gradient, road conditions, road sections, road width and traffic flow are the main influencing factors. Among them, the first seven are the qualitative influencing factors, and the traffic flow is the quantitative influencing factor. Each qualitative factor is divided into several categories. Finally, based on quantitative theory, an improved microcosmic prediction model of fuzzy road traffic accidents is established. The model is calculated by taking a 466.678 ~ 559.792 km section of a national highway as an example. The calculation results show that the three intersections have the greatest impact on the accident, and specific road rectification opinions are proposed for this section.