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用圆形分布法分析呈明显单峰型季节性流行的长尾黄鼠鼠疫动物病的流行高峰期,比以往用的相对比或构成比表达方式,能更精确地掌握在流行过程中不同时期的流行强度,以利于根据不同的监测目的选择最佳有效监测时期。流行高峰期与微弱流行期监测动物病获得阳性结果所需要的最低抽样量明显不附。长尾黄鼠鼠疫流行始于4月末,止于9月中旬,在流行过程中有50%以上的疫鼠集中发现于7月,75～80%疫鼠发现于6月中至8月中旬。若为研究该动物病流行规律的全过程,则需在整个流行期内在固定点进行监测;若仅为查明有无鼠疫动物病存在,则可在多个活动点或未知疫源地,选择流行高峰期7月监测,可以用较少的抽样量获取较高的阳性检出率,取得事半功倍的监测效果。
The circular distribution method was used to analyze the epidemic peaks of the plague-type zoonosis in the monomodal seasonal epidemic. Compared with the relative proportions or constituent ratio expressions in the past, The intensity of the epidemic, in order to facilitate the selection of the most effective monitoring period for different monitoring purposes. The minimum sample size required to obtain positive results for surveillance of animal diseases during the peak and prevalence phases of epidemics is clearly not apparent. The epidemic of the long-tailed squirrel plague began in late April and ended in mid-September. More than 50% of the plague rats were found in July during the epidemic. 75-80% of the plague rats were found in mid-June to mid-August. In order to study the whole process of the epidemic law of the animal disease, it is necessary to monitor it at fixed points throughout the epidemic period. If it is only for the purpose of ascertaining the presence or absence of the plague animal disease, it may be selected at multiple activity points or unknown foci July peak epidemic monitoring, you can use fewer samples to obtain a higher positive detection rate, and achieve a multiplier effect of monitoring.