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本文运用牛顿-高斯非线性参数分析、最小二乘回归等经济计量方法,对预期时间路径的主要参数进行了估计;并利用2005年7月至2010年6月全国住宅价格月度同比数据,对估计的预期函数进行了拟合优度检验。检验结果表明:样本区间内人均可支配收入的变动对住宅价格没有直接影响,预期的变动是住宅价格波动的唯一原因。理性预期从而基本面价值遵循指数增长趋势。当预期偏离均衡值时,价格泡沫开始形成并呈周期性变化。样本区间内,泡沫变化的周期约为30.4个月,平均泡沫程度约为2.25%,极端泡沫值约占基本面价值的6.64%。
In this paper, the main parameters of the expected time path are estimated by using econometric methods such as Newton-Gaussian nonlinear parameter analysis and least-squares regression. Based on the monthly data of the national housing prices from July 2005 to June 2010, The expected function of the goodness of fit test. The test results show that the change of per capita disposable income in the sample interval has no direct impact on the house price. The expected change is the only reason for the fluctuation of the house price. Rational expectations so that the fundamentals of value follow the trend of exponential growth. When the expected deviation from the equilibrium value, the price bubble began to form and cyclical changes. Within the sample interval, the period of foam change is about 30.4 months, the average foam level is about 2.25%, and the extreme foam level is about 6.64% of the fundamental value.