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针对已有突发事件预警研究的不足及预警信息的动态性等特征,提出区间信息类型下的突发事件动态预警方法.首先,建立区间形式评价等级标准,并在此基础上利用ti～ti+1时刻间的动态区间预警信息,计算各指标的基本置信度;然后,利用证据推理方法对基本置信度进行转化,并从最末级指标开始依次逆向逐级融合,最终得到可判断预警对象安全状态的置信度,以达到预警目的.最后,通过分析数据实例验证所提方法的可行性和有效性.
In view of the shortcomings of the existing emergency research and the dynamic characteristics of the early warning information, this paper proposes a dynamic early warning method of emergency information under the inter-area information type.First, establish the evaluation standard of interval form, and on this basis, +1 interval between the dynamic range of early warning information to calculate the basic confidence of each indicator; Then, the use of evidence reasoning method to transform the basic confidence level, and from the last level indicators in reverse order gradually reverse fusion, the final target can be judged early warning The confidence of the state of security in order to achieve the purpose of early warning.Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by analyzing the data examples.