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本文基于2014年中国5省1450户城乡调查数据,采用双尾截取Tobit模型考察了收入和城市化对巴氏奶和常温奶消费结构的影响。结果表明,尽管当前常温奶占中国市场的主导地位,但随着居民收入水平的持续提高和城市化的推进,巴氏奶的市场份额将显著上升。在不考虑不消费牛奶的家庭并假定其他条件不变时,收入增长与城市化导致的家庭巴氏奶消费占比将最高达34.9%,远高于当前的22.7%。考虑到收入与城市化对中国城乡居民牛奶消费总量也有显著正影响,这意味着,未来较长一段时期内,中国城乡居民对巴氏奶需求总量的增长速度会比巴氏奶消费占比的增长速度更快,这无疑将显著改变中国当前液态奶市场的基本格局。由于巴氏奶与常温奶对加工、储运、零售等环节的要求截然不同,需求端的这一结构性变化趋势必将直接影响中国奶业发展的路径选择、区域布局和贸易格局等。因此,本文结论对中国牛奶相关产业的供给侧改革有重要参考意义。
Based on the 1450 urban and rural survey data of 5 provinces in 5 provinces of China in 2014, Tobit model with two-tailed intercept was used to examine the effects of income and urbanization on the consumption structure of pasteurized milk and normal temperature milk. The results show that although the current normal temperature milk dominate the Chinese market, but with the continuous improvement of household income levels and the promotion of urbanization, the market share of pasteurized milk will increase significantly. Irrespective of households that do not consume milk and assuming other conditions remain the same, income growth and urbanization will account for up to 34.9% of households’ consumption of pasteurized milk, much higher than the current 22.7%. Taking into account that income and urbanization also have a significant positive impact on the total milk consumption of urban and rural residents in China, this means that in the longer term, the growth rate of total demand for Pasteur by Chinese urban and rural residents will be higher than that of Pasteur consumption This will undoubtedly significantly change the basic pattern of China’s current liquid milk market. Due to the completely different requirements of processing milk, storage and transportation and retail of pasteurized milk and ordinary milk, the structural change trend of demand side will definitely affect the path selection, regional distribution and trade pattern of dairy industry in China. Therefore, the conclusion of this article is of important reference significance to the supply-side reform of milk-related industries in China.