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利用历史资料、季风指数和气候记录对最近发表的由石笋古气候记录提出的东亚季风强度与中国朝代兴亡的关联性进行检证,指出这种关联性与中国历史事实有许多矛盾.大量的器测和历史气候记录表明中国东部的降水在1～10年尺度上存在明显的空间差异;季风强度与降水的关系也随地区的不同而异.因此,不能以单个地点的古气候记录来反映整个中国东部的干湿状况并进而得出东亚季风强弱是影响中国朝代变更的关键因素的结论.在1～10年尺度上,用石笋δ18O记录作为季风强度的指标还值得商榷.
Utilizing historical data, monsoon indices and climate records to verify the recent publication of the correlation between the strength of the East Asian monsoon and the rise and fall of the Chinese dynasties proposed by the paleoclimate records of stalagmites, pointing out that there are many contradictions between this correlation and the historical facts in China. Measurements and historical climatic records indicate that there is a clear spatial difference in precipitation over the 1-to-10-year scale in eastern China; the relationship between monsoon intensity and precipitation also varies from region to region, and therefore, the entire paleoclimate record at a single site can not be used to reflect the entire The dry and wet conditions in eastern China and then the strength of the East Asian monsoon are the key factors influencing the changes of the Chinese dynasties. The δ18O record of stalagmites as an indicator of the monsoon intensity is also open to question at the scale of 1-10 years.