在经济、社会和政治领域,变幻莫测的程度已经变得如此之大,以致大多数公司仍在实行的那种制定计划的做法—根据或然率来进行预测,如果不是有碍生产的话,也会是徒劳无益的。独特的重大事件,象苏维埃帝国的解体或(美国总统竞选中的)佩罗现象,都无或然率可言。然而,经理人员必须作出将目前的时间和财力资源投之于未来的决定。更糟糕的是,他们还必须为不投入资源作 In the economic, social, and political realms, the degree of uncertainty has become so great that most companies are still implementing the kind of plan-making—probably based on probabilities, if not hindered by production. It is useless. Unique events, such as the dissolution of the Soviet empire or the Perotian phenomenon (of the US presidential race), have no probable rate. However, managers must make the decision to invest the current time and financial resources in the future. What’s worse is that they must also make resources for not investing