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利用1983-2010年登陆广东省的热带气旋(TC)资料、该省及其各市水稻产量、早稻与晚稻发育期等资料,借用数理统计方法分析了TC对水稻产量的影响,再采用个例分析法,建立了不同时间登陆广东的TC级别与水稻减产率的对应关系。结果表明:(1)当热带风暴或强热带风暴在早稻或晚稻生长后期登陆、台风在早稻或晚稻生长中期登陆时,登陆地区或附近地区早稻或晚稻单产与上年比减产5%~7%,应发布中等级别的灾害预警。(2)当台风在早稻或晚稻生长后期登陆时,登陆地区或附近地区早稻或晚稻单产与上年比减产8%~12%,应发布重等级别的灾害预警。利用所建立的评估指标对1117号台风“纳沙”进行了评估,评估结果基本符合实际产量的灾损情况,说明评估指标可应用于实际业务。
Based on the data of tropical cyclones (TCs) landing in Guangdong Province from 1983 to 2010, the yield of rice in the province and its cities, the developmental period of early rice and late rice, mathematical statistics were used to analyze the effects of TC on rice yield. Act, established at different times the landing TC level in Guangdong and the corresponding reduction of rice yield. The results showed that: (1) When the tropical storm or severe tropical storm landed in the late rice or late rice stage and the typhoon landed in the early or late rice stage, the yield of early or late rice in the land area or nearby area decreased by 5% -7% , Middle-level disaster warnings should be issued. (2) When the typhoon landed at the late rice or late rice stage, early or late rice yields in the land areas or nearby areas decreased by 8% ~ 12% compared with the previous year, and heavy-level disaster warnings should be issued. The Typhoon No. 1117 Typhoon Nassas was evaluated by using the evaluation index established. The result of the assessment is basically in line with the actual output of the disaster situation, indicating that the assessment index can be applied to the actual business.