论文部分内容阅读
本文利用我国2004-2014年省级面板数据,采用动态差异——差异模型和系统广义矩估计方法(SYS-GMM),为我国税收的高速增长提供经济、货币层面上的解释。研究结果表明:货币政策的宽松与否,对税收增长有极大的影响,在货币政策宽松时期,货币政策对税收增长的促进作用更为显著,在货币政策紧缩时期,货币政策会抑制税收增长。通过对比系数大小发现,对于税收总收入,经济增长速度与人均GDP两个变量影响更大;对于流转税收入,经济增长速度与信贷规模两个变量的影响更大;对于所得税收入,人均GDP与信贷规模两个变量的影响更大。
Based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014 in our country, this paper uses the dynamic difference-difference model and the system generalized moment estimation method (SYS-GMM) to provide economic and monetary explanations for the rapid growth of China’s tax revenue. The results show that the easing of monetary policy has great influence on tax revenue growth. During the loose monetary policy, monetary policy has a more significant effect on tax revenue growth. Monetary policy will curb tax revenue growth during the tightening of monetary policy . By comparing the coefficient size, it is found that the two variables, the total tax revenue, the economic growth rate and the GDP per capita, have a greater impact on the two variables; the turnover tax turnover, the economic growth rate and the credit scale are more affected by the two variables. For the income tax revenue, The two variables of credit scale have a greater impact.