《财经界》2003年12期,对中国2004年经济发展进行了分析和展望。我们还需要对中国高增长的经济进行冷思考,在中国炽热的经济发展中潜藏着不容忽视的风险,就是中国制造行业的生产能力能力过剩问题。目前来看有些行业,包括钢铁、铝、房地产、汽车、电讯设备和消费品行业,由于需求强劲,供应有限,这些行业吸引了很 In the 12th issue of “Finance and Economics” in 2003, China’s economic development in 2004 was analyzed and forecasted. We also need to think coldly about China’s high-growth economy, and there is a risk that cannot be ignored in China’s hot economic development. This is the problem of excess production capacity in the Chinese manufacturing industry. At present, some industries, including steel, aluminum, real estate, automobile, telecommunications equipment and consumer goods industries, are attracted by the strong demand and limited supply.