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直到1990年,日本仍是世界上最成功的大型经济体,几乎没有人预料到在接下来的几十年里日本所发生的事情。今天,人们对中国取得的成就更为惊叹。但这个新兴的巨大经济体能够汲取教训、明白辉煌的成功通常预示着惊人的失败,这有可能吗?答案是肯定的。日本按购买力平价计算的人均国内生产总值(GDP)在1950年相当于美国水平的五分之一,到1990年跃升至美国水平的90%。不过,这种壮观的趋同之势出现了逆转。到2010年,日本人均GDP下降到了美国水平的76%。
Until 1990, Japan remained the most successful large economy in the world and few expected anything in Japan over the next few decades. Today, people are even more amazed by what China has achieved. But is it possible that this nascent, huge economy can learn the lesson and understand that brilliant successes often signal an astonishing defeat? The answer is yes. Japan’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) equivalent to one fifth of that of the United States in 1950 and 90% of that of the United States by 1990. However, this spectacular trend of convergence has reversed. By 2010, Japan’s per capita GDP has dropped to 76% of the U.S. level.