对于发达资本主义国家来说，1996年是90年代衰退结束后经济进入增长阶段的第三个年头。这个增长阶段，既是再生产周期的增长阶段，也是长周期（即康德拉季耶夫长波）的增长阶段。从再生产周期看，这个增长阶段有可能持续到本世纪末；从长周期看，则可持续20－25年之久，即到201 For advanced capitalist countries, 1996 was the third year the economy entered the stage of growth after the recession of the 1990s. This phase of growth is both an increase cycle of the reproduction cycle and an increase phase of the long cycle (that is, Kondratieff’s long wave). From the reproduction cycle, this growth stage is likely to continue until the end of this century; from the long cycle, it can last 20-25 years, that is, to 201