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根据灾害风险系统的定义以及洪水灾害的特点,用灾情损失与地形危险性的综合作用描述洪水灾害风险。针对研究单元风险的内在联系和等级概念的模糊性、随机性,提出基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估方法,以期为洪水灾害风险管理提供科学依据。以苏州市和上海市(崇明县除外)为例,首先用数据场对灾情数据进行扩散;再用云模型对地形进行等级划分;最后对两者进行耦合得到该地区的洪水灾害风险等级划分。结果表明:苏州市中心偏北区域和上海市中心区域综合风险等级最高,并向四周呈递减趋势;总体上中部风险等级最高,北部次之,南部最低。
According to the definition of disaster risk system and the characteristics of flood disaster, the risk of flood disaster is described by the combined effect of disaster loss and topography risk. In view of the fuzziness and randomness of the inherent relationship of research unit risk and the concept of hierarchy, this paper proposes a flood disaster risk assessment method based on data field and cloud model in order to provide a scientific basis for flood disaster risk management. Taking Suzhou and Shanghai (except Chongming County) as an example, the data field is firstly used to spread the disaster data. Then the cloud model is used to classify the terrain. Finally, the two are coupled to get the grade of flood disaster in this area. The results show that the comprehensive risk level is the highest in the northern part of Suzhou City and the central part of Shanghai City, and decreases in the four weeks. Generally speaking, the middle part of the risk level is the highest, followed by the north and the lowest in the south.