研究结果表明，芒果炭疽病在流行过程中，流行速度有多次升降；流行曲线属多峰曲线。每次流行速度上升过程主要是按照逻辑斯蒂生长模型的规律发展，但其指数增长期不明显。当前推广的品种都较感病，感病期长，菌源多，这些都已满足病害流行之需要。病害流行强度主要决定于芒果感病期间的气候条件。温暖高湿，连续降雨，则病害迅速发展造成流行。据此建立了施药预测指标，经３ａ应用，可减少２次喷药，并获得较好的防治效果。 The results showed that the epidemic rate of mango anthracnose increased and decreased several times during the epidemic period. The epidemic curve was a multi-peak curve. Every time the popularization rate increases, it mainly develops according to the law of the Logistic growth model, but its index growth period is not obvious. The current promotion of the varieties are more susceptible, longer duration of infection, more bacteria, which have met the needs of disease epidemic. Epidemic intensity of the disease is mainly determined by the climatic conditions during the period of mango infection. Warm and humid, continuous rainfall, the rapid development of disease caused by the epidemic. Based on this, a forecast index of pesticide application was established. After 3 years of application, spraying can be reduced by 2 times and a good control effect can be obtained.