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为了更好地完善突发事件风险评价过程,运用风险发展趋势评价模型对风险评价过程进行补充。采用Daniel趋势函数、灰色理论和模糊理论建立突发事件的风险发展趋势评价模型,并对广州市地铁运营风险发展趋势进行实证分析。结果表明,从执行过程看,该模型改善了突发事件风险评价的范围和评价结果的准确度,评价过程具有一定的可行性和客观性,可以推广应用到各类突发事件的风险发展趋势评价中。通过实证分析,该城市的地铁运营风险当前处于临界状态以下,可以保持当前的运营状态,与该城市的地铁运营状况相符合,对于单个子系统,乘客和员工素质系统目前处于临界状态,对整个地铁系统的安全性有较大影响,城市居民和员工素质需要进一步提高。
In order to improve the process of emergency risk assessment better, the risk assessment process is supplemented by the evaluation model of risk development trend. By using the trend function of Daniel, gray theory and fuzzy theory, the evaluation model of the risk development trend of emergencies is established and the trend of subway operation risk in Guangzhou is analyzed empirically. The results show that this model improves the scope of risk assessment and the accuracy of evaluation results from the implementation process. The evaluation process has some feasibility and objectivity and can be applied to the risk development trends of all kinds of emergencies Evaluation. Through empirical analysis, the city’s subway operation risk is currently below the critical state, you can maintain the current state of operation, with the city’s subway operations consistent with the situation, for a single subsystem, passenger and employee quality system is currently critical, the entire Subway system safety has a greater impact, urban residents and staff need to further improve the quality.