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影响评价潜在液化土层液化危害等级的因素,具有多种不确定性信息共存或交叉存在的特征,而传统液化指数计算方法求得的某点数值不能给出相应的应用可靠性信息,此对整个土层的地震液化风险决策分析不利。应用盲数理论,探讨了基于不确定信息下的、潜在液化土层液化等级的盲数风险评价模型,实现计算过程中实测数据保留原有信息直接参与风险运算,并确保累积误差最小,避免人为假设和最大限度的忠实于给定实测数据,同时给出结果应用的风险度。实例应用表明:将盲数理论应用于液化等级风险评价是有效可行的,且取得较好的结果。此对其它工程风险分析也具有一定参考价值。
The factors influencing the liquefaction level of potential liquefiable soil have the characteristics of coexistence or interdependence of many kinds of uncertain information. However, the value obtained by traditional liquefaction index calculation method can not give the corresponding reliability information of application. Analysis of the risk of seismic liquefaction throughout the soil is unfavorable. Applying the theory of blind numbers, the blind risk evaluation model of liquefaction level of potential liquefaction soil based on uncertain information is discussed. The measured data of the liquefaction level is directly involved in risk calculation during the calculation process, and the cumulative error is minimized, Hypotheses and maximum faithfulness to the given measured data, together with the degree to which the results apply. The application of examples shows that it is feasible and feasible to apply blind number theory to the liquefaction level risk assessment and obtain better results. This is also of certain reference value to other project risk analysis.