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目的分析北京市西城区国家传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)的运行情况,为完善传染病预警工作模式提供依据。方法对北京市西城区2008—2016年CIDARS中3种预警模型的预警信号数及信号响应率、信号响应时间进行描述性分析。结果 2008—2016年西城区共接到24种传染病预警4 714条,信号响应率为99.98%,信号响应时间的中位数为27.35 h。其中85条信号经初步判断为疑似事件,现场调查确认为暴发的有81条。单病例预警模型响应时间较时间序列和时空探测预警模型更短(H=823.68,P<0.01);单病例预警模型的信号疑似率和信号阳性率均高于时间序列和时空探测预警模型(χ~2=251.24,P<0.01;χ~2=233.35,P<0.01)。结论传染病自动预警系统总体运行稳定,但假阳性预警信号偏多,建议进一步优化部分参数,适当增加数据来源。
Objective To analyze the operation of CIDARS in Xicheng District, Beijing, and provide the basis for improving the early warning mode of infectious diseases. Methods Descriptive analysis of early warning signal, signal response rate and signal response time of three early warning models in CIDARS from 2008 to 2016 in Xicheng District of Beijing was conducted. Results A total of 4 714 early warnings of infectious diseases were received in Xicheng District during 2008-2016. The signal response rate was 99.98%. The median response time was 27.35 h. Among them, 85 signals were initially judged as suspected incidents, and 81 were confirmed as outbreaks by on-site investigation. The response time of single-case early-warning model was shorter than that of time series and space-time detection and warning model (H = 823.68, P <0.01). The signal suspicious rate and signal positive rate of single-case model was higher than that of time- ~ 2 = 251.24, P <0.01; χ ~ 2 = 233.35, P <0.01). Conclusion The automatic warning system for infectious diseases is generally stable, but there are too many false positive warning signals. It is suggested to further optimize some parameters and increase the data source appropriately.