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目的：建立一个数学模型，预测临床T1～2N0M0乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移情况。方法：对256例行根治术乳腺癌患者进行回顾性研究，按腋窝淋巴结转移情况分为两组，行多因素Logistic回归分析及判别分析。结果：Logistic多元回归分析提示微淋巴管浸润、肿瘤大小、肿瘤部位、癌周浸润、间质浸润等5个指标为腋窝淋巴结转移的高危因素；据高危因素所建立的判别函数，阴性预测值高达88．9％，阳性预测值71．8％，判别准确率83.2％。结论：本判别函数数学模型简单，在理论上可以较准确地判断腋窝淋巴结的转移情况，可能有一定的临床参考价值。
Objective: To establish a mathematical model to predict axillary lymph node metastasis in patients with clinical T1 ~ 2N0M0 breast cancer. Methods: A retrospective study of 256 breast cancer patients undergoing radical resection was performed. Axillary lymph node metastasis was divided into two groups. Logistic regression analysis and discriminant analysis were performed. RESULTS: Logistic multiple regression analysis suggested that five indicators such as lymphatic vessel infiltration, tumor size, tumor location, perinuclear infiltration, and interstitial infiltration were high risk factors for axillary lymph node metastasis; according to the discriminant function established by high-risk factors, the negative predictive value was high 88.9%, positive predictive value was 71.8%, and the discriminant accuracy rate was 83.2%. Conclusion: The mathematical model of this discriminant function is simple, and it can be used to judge the metastasis of axillary lymph nodes more accurately in theory. It may have some clinical reference value.