目的建立流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)预警指标体系。方法首先采用文献调研和专家会议法拟订乙脑预警指标体系初始框架和指标,然后应用德尔菲法确定预警指标和指标权重。结果建立了包括人群免疫水平、传播媒介、贮存宿主、社会因素及病例相关指标的5项一级预警指标及对应的10个二级预警指标。结论建立了适用于中国乙脑防控的预警指标体系,但需要利用历史疫情对该指标体系的信度和效度进行评价,并在实际应用中进一步完善。 Objective To establish an early warning index system for Japanese encephalitis (JE). Methods Firstly, we used the literature research and expert conference method to formulate the initial framework and indicators of early warning indicator system for JE, and then used Delphi method to determine the early warning indicators and indicator weights. Results Five first-grade early-warning indicators including 10 indicators of population immunity, mass media, storage hosts, social factors and cases were established and 10 second-level early-warning indicators were established. Conclusion The early warning index system suitable for prevention and control of Chinese JE has been established, but the reliability and validity of this indicator system needs to be evaluated by historical epidemic situation and further improved in practical application.