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军品订货量的预测是规划未来国防工业生产规模的关键.本文首先分析确定了影响陕西国防工业军品订货量的主要因素,对其中的定性因素进行了量化;之后将预测过程模拟成一个“Fuzzy”系统,预测依据作为系统的输入,预测量作为系统的输出,根据历史的输入、输出数据确定系统的特性,建立预测模型;以此为基础,给定输入数据,在系统特性的作用下,即可求得预测输出.由于使用了一种新的基于T-S模糊模型的自适应模糊神经网络,从而使预测模型具有很强的自适应能力.本文的军品订货预测方法具有比较强的通用性.
Prediction of military orders is the key to planning the scale of the future defense industry. This paper first analyzes and determines the main factors influencing the order quantity of Shaanxi’s defense industry military products and quantifies the qualitative factors therein. Afterwards, the forecasting process is modeled as a “Fuzzy” system. The forecasting basis is taken as the input of the system and the forecasting quantity is taken as the output of the system , According to the history of the input and output data to determine the characteristics of the system to establish a predictive model; based on this, given the input data, under the system characteristics of the role, you can get the forecast output. Due to the use of a new adaptive fuzzy neural network based on the T-S fuzzy model, the predictive model is highly adaptive. This article military order forecasting method has a relatively strong versatility.