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今年1月至8月,在国际市场石油价格以每月30-60%的度急速窜升的过程中,全球石油需求却呈现增幅逐月下滑的势,不难看出今年以来石油价格的持续上涨是前期石油需求张引起的滞后效应,但自2005年4月以来全球石油供需剩余长趋势明显,决定了石油价格上涨的动能已经衰竭,将步入滑通道。通过抑制石油消费需求来促使石油价格的回归,将会导致球经济增长的减速。国际石油价格的上涨对中国的投资有直抑制作用,对国民收入和消费的抑制作用将在今年下半年到年上半年表现出来。石油价格的变动对消费的冲击是长期,对国民收入是中期的,而对投资的冲击却是短期的。
From January to August this year, the global oil demand showed a month-on-month increase in the rate of 30-60% per month in the international market. It is not hard to see that oil prices have been rising steadily this year Is the lagged effect caused by the oil demand in the early stage. However, since the long-term residual oil supply and demand surplus in the world has become clear since April 2005, the kinetic energy of rising oil prices has been exhausted and will slip into the slippery passage. By suppressing oil consumption demand to promote the return of oil prices, will lead to economic slowdown ball. The rise of international oil prices will have a direct inhibitory effect on China’s investment and its inhibitory effect on the national income and consumption will manifest itself in the second half of this year to the first half of this year. The impact of changes in oil prices on consumption is long-term, while the national income is medium-term, while the impact on investment is short-term.