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目的 探讨适用预防接种门诊疫苗接种量的预测模型.方法 收集宁海县城关预防接种门诊2010-2014年各月常规免疫剂次数,应用时间序列分解法建立接种剂次数的趋势值(Y)随时间(t)的回归方程,预测2015年各月接种剂次数.结果 该门诊月接种剂次数的趋势值回归方程为Y =6 750.383 8-15.289 5 t,据此预测2015年该门诊各月接种剂次数与实际接种剂次数的相对误差在0.45％-25.44％之间.结论 应用时间序列分解法对预防接种门诊接种量的预测具有良好的可行性.“,”Objective To develop a model to predict doses of vaccine administered in immunization clinics.Methods We collected counts of doses administered by month in Chengguan immunization clinic of Ninghai county from 2010 to 2014,and used a time series decomposition method to build a regression equation with doses administered (Y) and time (t) to predict doses administered by month for the following year-2015.Results The resulting regression equation was Y =6 750.383 8-15.289 St.The relative error between predicted administered doses by month in the immunization clinic in 2015 ranged from 0.45％ to 25.44％,compared with actual doses administered values.Conclusions It is feasible to use a time series decomposition method to predict administered vaccine doses in immunization clinics.