论文部分内容阅读
目的分析内蒙古自治区兴安盟布鲁菌病(简称布病)传播特征,探讨预防布病的有效措施。方法结合兴安盟布病的特点和需要解决的问题,建立了周期动力学传播模型。结果利用人间报告病例对模型的参数进行估计,获得人间布病的发病率及羊群布病的阳性率。结论将出生高峰期和免疫高峰期控制在4月份,检测高峰期控制在3月份时,兴安盟3年内可以变为控制区。
Objective To analyze the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Xing’an League of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (hereinafter referred to as brucellosis) and to explore effective measures to prevent brucellosis. Methods According to the characteristics of Xingdu Bingbu disease and the problems to be solved, a periodic dynamics propagation model was established. Results Based on the human reported cases, the parameters of the model were estimated and the incidence of human brucellosis and the positive rate of brucellosis were obtained. Conclusions The birth peak and immunization peak are controlled in April. When the peak detection period is controlled in March, Xing’an League can become the control area in three years.