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粮食作为农业生产以及人民生活的重要商品,是保障人民基本生活、构建和谐社会的前提条件。本文作者认为粮食价格波动直接或间接受到货币供应量的影响,并利用我国1978年～2012年的数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:从长期来看,广义货币供应量、财政支农投入与粮食价格波动存在长期稳定的均衡关系;从短期来看,由于时滞原因,货币供应量与粮食价格波动呈负向作用关系,而财政支农投入对粮食价格的影响仍为负向关系。这也表明我国粮食价格的波动长期以来受货币供应量的影响,而短期则受到财政支农投入的影响。在此结论的基础上,文章就货币政策对我国粮食价格的影响提出了对策建议。
Food, as an important commodity for agricultural production and people’s livelihood, is a prerequisite for guaranteeing people’s basic living and building a harmonious society. The author believes that the fluctuation of food prices is directly or indirectly affected by the money supply and uses the data from 1978 to 2012 in our country for empirical research. The results show that: in the long run, there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between broad money supply, financial support for agriculture and food price volatility; in the short run, due to the time lag, the money supply and food price fluctuations have a negative effect However, the impact of financial support for agriculture on food prices is still negative. This also shows that the volatility of grain prices in our country has long been influenced by the money supply, while in the short run, it is affected by the investment in financial support for agriculture. Based on this conclusion, the article puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on the influence of monetary policy on the grain price in our country.