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本文首先对国际石油价格现状及其变动特征进行分析,分别从总量和产业角度研究国际石油价格变动对新疆经济发展的影响。在总量上,国际石油价格与新疆经济具有关联性。在产业层面,国际石油价格波动通过能源行业、农业、工业、交通运输业的成本、利润变化间接影响新疆的经济发展。其次,选取1993年—2013年的英国布伦特原油价格与新疆GDP作为具体指标建立误差修正模型,分析结果显示,新疆GDP与国际石油价格存在长期均衡关系,国际石油价格是新疆GDP的格兰杰原因。最后,对于如何有效应对国际石油价格波动对新疆经济发展的影响,提出稳定石油生产供应能力、加大新能源的开发力度、推动经济发展方式转变、不断完善能源金融体系、大力加强国际能源合作五条对策建议。
This article first analyzes the current status of international oil prices and their changing characteristics, and studies the impact of changes in international oil prices on the economic development in Xinjiang from the perspective of total volume and industry. In terms of total volume, international oil prices are related to Xinjiang’s economy. At the industrial level, international oil price fluctuations indirectly affect the economic development of Xinjiang through changes in the costs and profits of the energy industry, agriculture, industry, and transportation. Secondly, the British Brent crude oil price from 1993 to 2013 and Xinjiang’s GDP are selected as specific indicators to establish an error correction model. The analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Xinjiang GDP and international oil prices, and the international oil price is the GDP of Xinjiang. Jay reason. Finally, on how to effectively respond to the impact of international oil price fluctuations on Xinjiang’s economic development, we proposed five measures to stabilize the oil production and supply capacity, increase the development of new energy sources, promote the transformation of economic development patterns, continuously improve the energy financial system, and vigorously strengthen international energy cooperation. Suggestions.