论文部分内容阅读
本文利用改进的竞争型投入产出表分析两岸贸易对台湾就业的影响,并借助偏差分析法探讨两岸贸易的就业效应随时间变动的原因。研究表明,相较于台湾与欧美日国家之间的贸易对台湾就业的影响,台湾出口大陆对台湾就业的拉动更大,而进口大陆对就业的替代则较小。文章同时指出两岸贸易规模扩张是其就业变动的主要原因,进出口贸易结构对就业的影响较小,但趋于增加。另外,随着两岸贸易往来的正常化,台湾自大陆进口替代的就业量趋于增加,这可能成为岛内部分学者和民众反对两岸贸易深化的主要依据点。
This paper uses the improved competitive input-output table to analyze the impact of cross-Strait trade on Taiwan’s employment and uses deviation analysis to explore the reasons for the employment effect of cross-Strait trade over time. The study shows that compared with the impact of the trade between Taiwan, countries in Europe, the United States and Japan on the employment of Taiwan, the export-oriented Taiwanese have more motivated Taiwan’s employment while the imported continent has less employment substitution. The article also pointed out that the expansion of cross-Strait trade scale is the main reason for employment change, import and export trade structure has little effect on employment, but tends to increase. In addition, with the normalization of cross-Strait trade, the employment volume of Taiwanese import substitution from the Mainland tends to increase, which may become the main basis for some scholars and people on the island opposing the deepening of cross-Strait trade.