论文部分内容阅读
介绍了DairyMod模型的结构和功能,应用刈割模式对多花黑麦草(Lolium multiflorum)的生长速率、干草总产量进行模拟和验证。在输入牧草实际生育期和调整生理参数的基础上,采用当地气象观测站1991—2012年气象数据作为驱动模拟。通过收集四川省雅安7年和洪雅4年多花黑麦草的生产数据,运用多个统计指标对干草总产量的模拟进行检验。两地的生长速率模拟值与实测值基本一致,干物质总产量模拟值与实际值显著相关,决定系数R~2分别为0.97和0.91,D值分别为0.94和0.58,RMSE分别为340和1132 kg·hm~(-2);NRMSE分别为2.3%和7.5%。模拟平均值比实测平均值分别高2.0%和4.5%,产量的高估可能是由于模拟施氮量大于生产施氮量而导致。结果表明,多花黑麦草在洪雅的生长速率和总产量大于在雅安,校准后的DairyMod对四川多花黑麦草的季节生产和总产量有较好的模拟和预测。
The structure and function of the DairyMod model were introduced. The mowing mode was used to simulate and verify the growth rate of Lolium multiflorum and the total hay yield. Based on the actual growth period of forage and the adjustment of physiological parameters, the meteorological data of local meteorological stations from 1991 to 2012 were used as the driving simulation. By collecting the production data of spent ryegrass in Ya’an of Sichuan Province for 7 years and Hongya for 4 years, the authors used multiple statistical indicators to test the simulation of total hay production. The simulated values of growth rate of the two plots are basically consistent with the measured values. The simulated values of total dry matter yield are significantly correlated with the actual values. The determinant coefficients R ~ 2 are 0.97 and 0.91, the values of D are 0.94 and 0.58, respectively, and the RMSEs are 340 and 1132 kg · hm -2; NRMSE was 2.3% and 7.5% respectively. The simulated average values were 2.0% and 4.5% higher than the measured mean values, respectively. The overestimation of production could be attributed to the fact that simulated nitrogen application rate was larger than nitrogen production. The results showed that the growth rate and total yield of ryegrass in Hongya was greater than that in Ya’an, and the calibrated DairyMod had better simulated and predicted seasonal production and total yield of ryegrass in Sichuan.