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阻碍分散型可再生能源技术扩散的重要因素是其较高的采用成本,而随着居民收入水平的逐步增加,对这种新能源技术的采用行为也越来越普遍.基于元胞自动机技术,考虑到绝对收入水平和相对收入水平对居民采用行为的影响机制,将元胞划分为潜在者、等待者和采用者三种状态并定义了相互间的转化概率,建立了收入影响下的分散型可再生能源技术扩散模型.通过与太阳能热水器扩散数据的对比证明了模型的合理性,仿真分析表明,相对收入系数与等待元胞转化概率成反比,与采用元胞转化概率成正比,潜在者相对收入系数变动的边际贡献小于等待者;此外,研究还发现采用示范效应和收入敏感度是在特定收入范围内而非收入最大值区域是最优的,初始采用元胞收入水平高低对扩散进程没有显著的促进作用.这些结论对可再生能源技术推广和企业市场营销决策都有着积极的借鉴意义.
An important factor hindering the proliferation of decentralized renewable energy technologies is its high adoption cost, and with the gradual increase of resident income, the adoption of this new energy technology is also becoming more and more popular.Based on cellular automata Considering the impact mechanism of absolute income level and relative income level on residents’ adoption behavior, we divide the cell into three states: potential, waiting and adopter and define the transformation probability between each other, and establish the decentralization under the influence of income Model of renewable energy technology diffusion model.Compared with the proliferation data of solar water heater, the rationality of the model is proved.The simulation analysis shows that the relative income coefficient is inversely proportional to the probability of waiting for cell transformation, which is proportional to the probability of cell transformation, In addition, the study also found that the use of model effects and sensitivity of income is within the scope of a particular income rather than the maximum income region is optimal, the initial level of cellular income for the proliferation process There is no significant role in promoting these conclusions on renewable energy technology promotion and corporate marketing decisions have A positive reference.